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Forging rares is going to be 1/5 of that chance. You can't just speak with terms like "a lot" when, relatively, a lot more will succeed. $('.apikey', widgetRef).removeClass('tokenerror').removeClass('tokenvalid'); To note, only high level players (62 - 80) can receive unnamed exotic quality weapons and may be more likely to receive precursor weapons from loot as loot often scales with level. If 1000 ppl try 485 times each, then on average, 50% of them will end up getting nothing after that. Players have a chance to receive a precursor weapon when combining four rare or exotic weapons with an average level of 75 or higher. And forging greatswords is profitable right now. So what if I use up 20000 gold? While this method is more troublesome than method 1, it is usually cheaper than method 1 due to the cheaper godskull weapons. Only use stones with cheap exotics. } $.getJSON('https://api.guildwars2.com/v2/account/skins?access_token=' + token + '&wiki=1&lang=en') For this guide, I will be focusing on 2 forging methods and going through the calculation for the average forging costs for one of the most popular precursors, Dusk/Dawn. Good luck. I forged more than 20 precursors like this. var token = $('.apikey', widgetRef).val(); } if (match) { // Function that produces field for API key, and a button to fetch API account data. The only time I've ever got a pre from the forge was by throwing in 4 exotic account bound weapons that I got from PVP and dungeon tokens. The forge stone randomizes it, so you can get rage (or one of the other cheap pres) instead of something good. var isSubtoken = !match[1]; var v = document.cookie.match('(^|;) ?' This post has too much speculation and requires absurd amount of luck. What he said is true. New comments cannot be posted and votes cannot be cast. Unlock the second tier collection by purchasing the unlock from Grandmaster Craftsman Hobbs. You have to be able to keep the forging up to save yourself from a permament loss. I'm not sure on this one. Ok, I made it bold. var token = cookie || localStorage.getItem(apiKeyCookieName) || localStorage.getItem(subtokenCookieName); Player research into the chance of receiving a precursor when combining four exotic weapons of the same type estimates the probability at 1.79% with 2901 trials. displaySettingsLegend.append($('')); It's about explaining a general concept and not using it as an example in the case of forging precursors). For example, players can combine one level 60 rare weapon and three level 80 weapons. There is a lot of mathematical misconception going down in this thread. New comments cannot be posted and votes cannot be cast. var elementids = $.map(data, function(val) { for (var i=0;i < elements.length;i++) { } Thanks! Are there any other profitable ones? } function deleteCookie(name) { just save it up in your bank until you have enough to flush them. Sorry if I wasn't clear enough. The first tier of each precursor's collection can be found in the Legendary Weapons section of the Collections menu found in the Achievements tab of the Hero panel, though they remain locked until unlocked by purchasing the corresponding collection unlock from Grandmaster Craftsman Hobbs. You would also have an extremely small propability to double your money on the other hand. Feel free to ask me any questions in-game. }); Exotic precursor weapons can be obtained from almost any item source. // Give users the option to delete their API key cookie My assumptions give an average of ~1300 attempts per precursor, though personal experience has varied tremendously (getting two Dusks 3 attempts apart, to 4000 attempts before calling it good). var match = idPattern.exec(elements[i].id); if (!match) { }); Would it be to combine rares, exotics, same type? This includes loot, chests, containers, reward chests, etc. 3 exotics + mystic stone is the highest chance, but the outcome is random weapon type. These collections are unlocked by spending mastery points. Press J to jump to the feed. deleteCookie(subtokenCookieName); Some precursor collections reward more than just precursor crafting materials: This page was last edited on 27 August 2020, at 02:26. Exotic precursor weapons can be obtained from almost any item source. Yes, it's not just the average chances that matter but the variance as well. You will of course only loose money when you get 0, so you have a high chance of losing everything and a high chance of ganing a lot of money or even doubling/tripling it. We will be finding the GPF (Gold per Forge) and multiplying it by 700 in order to determine the average forging cost of the precursor. Obviously we are now ignoring the effect we would have to the market ourself with such a huge sample size. Every time I get an exotic worth less then 2g, I throw it in my bank until I have 3 of them and use them + a mystic stone in order to roll for a precursor. Based on my experience (~80 MF'd pres, and way too much time staring at spreadsheets), tempered with being somewhat outdated since I've stopped: Generally speaking, you're best off MFing for the most valuable precursor (which, last I checked was sword; staff's components are too expensive, and GS is unpredictable since Dawn is relatively cheap). Where R is the price of crafting a lvl 80 rare gs in Gold, E is the selling price of the cheapest exotic gs in Gold and G is the price of crafting a lvl 65 Godskull weapon in Gold. Edit: Summary version: Mixed junk rares, specific-type rares for the good stuff. Welcome to /r/GuildWars2 where we strive to be a place where you can share your Guild Wars 2 experiences and partake in discussions with players from around the world. Precursor weapons are level 80 FExotic weapons or GAscended weapons used to craft HLegendary weapons at the Mystic Forge. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts, Now Playing: Steam backlog | r/GuildWarsGoneWild. Ends up below 1g per forge and taking into account the value of average outcome you'll just lose about 50s. After this, you should be armed with the knowledge to better do so. deleteCookie(apiKeyCookieName); So when you throw in 500 gold with an optimized method you are expected to get out about 1.2 precursors as a result. So, go ahead and "lol". This is method is largely similar to method 1. Obviously, given the huge variance such a model has (for very low propabilities the variance of a model goes up drastically) you have a very real chance of losing money, unless you throw in an obscene amount of greatsword (a greater sample size reduces the relative expected deviation). var widgetControls = widgetName + '-controls'; Average 800 forges were needed per precursor. $('.apikey', widgetRef).val(''); Thanks for clarifying, really appreciate it. Not true for one person, but true for theoretical, "average" persons. Its true that this involves risks, but the aim of this is to provide people with some knowledge if they want to start doing this. The possibility of receiving a precursor weapon is not dependent on level or area, as players have reported r… .done(function(data) { As mentioned earlier, for method 2 we aim to combine 1 Godskull weapon with 3 lvl 80 rares. function getCookie(k) { displaySettingsLegend.append($('')); var idPrefix = "skins-"; }) Cookies help us deliver our Services. Learn to play the game and 100% profit can be made.

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